It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future. – Danish Proverb. How Google lost first mover advantage in AI race. What are the Lessons?
Sundar Pichai CEO of Google conceded this week that the popular interest in AI – triggered by global sensation caused by the 2022 launch of OpenAI’s ChatGPT – had caught him by surprise.
Google spearheaded AI Transformers from 2017 to 2020, laying the foundation for Generative AI, including ChatGPT.
But Pichai said he was surprised by the scale of popular engagement. “I had a different sense of trajectory in mind.”
Why? Let’s explore
Is the future Noun or a Verb? Does the future happen to us or does our collective action create the future?
If it happens to us, why can’t we model all aspects of the future using Newtonian laws?
If the combined collective action dictates the future, it is organic and evolutionary akin to the Darwinian notion of natural selection. Individual action, leadership, government, and companies have the power to change the future so why can’t we predict?
I suspect the future lies at the intersection of Darwin and Newton. You have to get both dimensions right to impact the outcome.
Do not confuse expertise and knowledge with predictability. Newtonian dimension is related to expertise and knowledge but Darwinian dimension is about probability and predictability.
Geologists can identify the location of future earthquakes using their deep knowledge of Tectonic plates but cannot predict the timing.
Google got the Newtonian dimension right, and they got the math and model for transformers right but they completely missed the Darwinian dimension.
I am not surprised.
AI has been the next big thing for the past 50 years but never took off until now. Instead, the Internet won the race and nobody saw that coming but Google spotted and conquered it.
The moment you have critical mass, the change will be exponential, vertical take-off instantaneously. With no time to react, Google was left behind.
Ironically, I am using Google Trends to make my case, see the chart below
Visionaries by definition are contrarians, it is not enough to be a contrarian, you have to be right and within a timeframe. Being ahead of time without a critical mass of humanity behind will not be economically rewarding.
I was inspired by former US president Woodrow Wilson to think along these lines, Thanks to Morgan Housel for pointing me to his essay in 1908 rebutting the argument against big government.
“The trouble with the theory is that government is not a machine, but a living thing. It falls, not under the theory of the universe, but under the theory of organic life. It is accountable to Darwin, not to Newton. It is modified by its environment, necessitated by its tasks, shaped to its functions by the sheer pressure of life.”
You can read all my “Notes to Self” at view all blogs.