“We didn’t do anything wrong, but somehow, we lost”: Nokia CEO. Why do things go wrong when you are doing everything right? Let's explore.
On March 28, 1979, a sightseeing flight crashed into a mountain in Antarctica, killing all of the 279 people onboard.
An investigation determined that the crew had not been informed of a two-degree correction made to the plane's flight path the night before, causing the plane's navigation system to route them toward Mount Erebus instead of through McMurdo Sound.
Two degrees don't sound like a lot, but in aviation terms, even one degree is huge.
Hence Pilots are taught the 1:60 rule of thumb.
The 1:60 Rule is a navigation shortcut from the aviation world. Simply put, if a plane's heading is off by 1 degree, after 60 nautical miles (nm) the aircraft will be a mile off-course.
Imagine an airplane leaving San Francisco and flying directly to Bangalore. The flight will take about 18 hours.
But, if the nose of the airplane is pointed just 2-3 degrees off course, after 18 hours the plane will land somewhere near Maldives.
Why?
1. A small error at the origin compounded over time can lead to vastly different outcomes.
2. In a complex system with numerous components, even the minutest of errors in each part can result in significantly varied outcomes when considering the sum of these parts.
Although each part operates within the error tolerance, the sum of parts – The "Big Picture” will not make any sense.
3. “Frog in Boiling Water” - A metaphor that is often used for the inability of people to react to changes that occur gradually is the boiled frog syndrome.
If a frog is placed in boiling water, it will jump out, but if it is placed in cold water that is slowly heated, it will not perceive the danger and will be cooked to death.
Nokia's smartphone market share was 50% in 2007 before iPhone, by 2013 it declined to 2%. The fall was dramatic, it was a combination of factors but "Boiled Frog Syndrome" decisively led to swift demise.
Top-down rule of thumb heuristics is as important as bottoms-up detailed view to course correct. Both will have to work in tandem.
Thinking without doing or doing without thinking will lead to the wrong destination.
Carve out thinking time in your daily schedule, treasure it, and preserve it at any cost.
what do you think?
Laugh, and Learn every day.
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