We humans are so bad at predicting the future, that we consistently fail to see future changes. It is better to focus on "what is not going to change". Let’s explore the Lindy effect.

Nobody predicted a pandemic, global lockdown, remote working, revenge spending, or the rise and fall of Netflix, Zoom, Peloton, and many more.

The “Future” gets a kick out of proving experts' predictions wrong.

The Fed was insisting that inflation was “transitory” only to be proven wrong.

Recently, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said policymakers "are not confident" interest rates are high enough to bring inflation down to the 2% target. Inflation tracked lower 48 hours later.

So, let’s focus on what is not going to change- Lindy effect

According to Nassim Taleb,

“For the perishable, every additional day in its life translates into a shorter additional life expectancy. (e.g. Food, humans life span)

For the non-perishable, every additional day may imply a longer life expectancy.

Things that have been around for a long time are not ‘aging’ like persons, but ‘aging’ in reverse,”

In simpler terms, the longer something has been around, the longer it is likely to remain relevant and persist in the future.

If a book has been in print for 50 years, for example, it is likely to remain in print for another 50 years.

London, Rome, Cairo, and Varanasi have been around for 1000+ years, all of them will thrive for another 1000 years.

This principle is often applied to cultural phenomena and technologies.

Humans are driven by greed and envy, have always fought for land, power, and resources and will continue to fight in the future.

How does it work in business and life?

According to Jeff Bezos,

“I very frequently get the question: What’s going to change in the next 10 years?

I rarely get the question: What’s not going to change in the next 10 years?

The second question is the more important of the two because you can build a strategy around the things that are stable in time.

In our retail business, we know that our customers want low prices, a vast selection, and faster delivery and I know that’s going to be true 10 years from now”

So, what is not going to change in your life?

Focus on your physical and mental health, family, friends, continuous learning, low lifestyle inflation, and low external expectations.

Do you agree?

Take it easy until next time.

Laugh, and Learn every day.

Views are personal

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