2023 predictions proved to be catastrophic for experts, what about 2024?

Top 10 trends that matter. "There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don't know, and those who don't know they don't know" - J.K. Galbraith.

Predictions are hazardous but sure are entertaining.

1. #inflation : The first thought that comes to my mind is “Tom and Jerry”, Central bank governors playing Tom and Inflation appearing as Jerry.  So far, whatever Tom is thinking, saying, and doing, Jerry has done the opposite.   Will Tom start winning in 2024? Only time will tell.

2. #interestrates : The era of cheap money – near 0% interest rate is a distant memory, “Higher for Longer” was the expectation until the Fed's dovish stance in December '23. Never mind, it has flipped again in Jan’24.

3. #stocks : The rapid rise in interest rates was expected to plunge the global economy into deep recession adversely impacting equity markets in 2023. The reality – NASDAQ up 43%, S&P500 up 24% and DOW hitting all-time highs up 14%. I am smart enough to know that I am dumb at predictions, I have no idea about 2024.

4. #bonds : Financial pundits advise 60:40 portfolio (Stocks: Bonds) as they are supposed to have a negative correlation i.e. when stocks rise, bonds fall and vice versa hedging each other. The correlation turned positive in 2023 confounding experts.. was it an aberration or the beginning of a trend?

5. #ai : SAM Altman, Jensen Huang, and Satya Nadella were all hailed as the best CEOs of 2023 for betting on AI heavily ahead of time, Satya believes AI is as important as the internet was in 1995. The question is, was 2023 the 1999 moment?

6: #inequality : If you did not own financial assets (Stocks/Bonds), you were certainly left behind in 2023. The value of real assets (House/Car) declined due to higher interest rates. The majority do not own financial assets. Inequality continues to widen.

7. #democracy : c.50% of the world population in more than 30 countries is scheduled to vote and elect a leader in 2024. Widening inequality makes the outcome unpredictable.

8. #china : Ideologies, faith, and power do not feed the citizens. “It’s the economy”, will China surprise the world positively in 2024?

9. #algorithms : New “God(s)” in town, they recommend and influence everything - what to eat, what to read, whom to date/marry, what to watch, where to travel, what to buy. If at all freewill exists, they are being threatened.. watch out.

10. #nature : only way to deal with all of the above. The human body is built to move in nature, stop reading, go for a run, and step out into nature now!

Note: Views are personal and certainly not an investment advice.

“Live, Laugh, and Learn every day”

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